Δείτε το έγγραφο
Η συνάντηση που λαμβάνει χώρα κατά το δεύτερο δεκαήμερο του Φεβρουαρίου του 2009, γίνεται την εποχή που η Ελληνική οικονομία μόλις που έχει αρχίσει να απασχολεί τον διεθνή τύπο, πολύ πριν όμως τις αποφάσεις της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής για την αναθεώρηση του ελλείμματος του 2009 και τα Greek Statistics.
Ο τότε Αμερικανός πρέσβης στην Αθήνα Ντάνιελ Σπέκχαρντ σχολιάζει ως «μη ρεαλιστική» και «δονκιχωτική» την άποψη της κυβέρνησης και του υπουργού ότι η Ελλάδα δεν θα επηρεαστεί από την κρίση, σε αντίθεση με ό,τι έχει ήδη συμβεί σε άλλες οικονομίες.
«Ο τόνος του υπουργού στην συνάντηση», σημειώνει ο Σκπέκχαρντ, «προσομοίαζε στην δημόσια ρητορική του που χαρακτηρίζεται από έλλειψη νηφαλιότητας σχετικά με τον πραγματικό αντίκτυπο της Οικονομικής κρίσης στην Ελλάδα».
Στα σχόλιά του, ο τότε Αμερικανός πρέσβης εκφράζει την ανησυχία του ότι η απροθυμία της κυβέρνησης να θέσει υπό έλεγχο την κατάσταση και να αναλάβει τις ευθύνες της, σε συνδυασμό με τις υπεραισιόδοξες δηλώσεις στον Τύπο, δίνουν στις αγορές την εντύπωση ότι αυτή η κυβέρνηση δεν έχει πάρει στα σοβαρά την υπόθεση της δημοσιονομικής πειθαρχίας και της προώθησης επιπλέον διαρθρωτικών μεταρρυθμίσεων.
Στο κείμενο των συμπερασμάτων του για τη συνάντηση με τον κ. Παπαθανασίου, ο κ. Σπέκχαρντ αναφέρει ότι η ελληνική κυβέρνηση «αντί να ελπίζει για το καλύτερο και να προετοιμάζεται για το χειρότερο, φαίνεται να προετοιμάζεται για το καλύτερο, να και «αγνοούσε τα υπόλοιπα» ενδεχόμενα.
Ιδιαίτερα καυστικός ήταν ο κ. Ντέιβιντ Σπέκχαρντ, ο εν Ελλάδι Αμερικανός πρέσβης το 2009, μετά την πρώτη του συνάντηση με τον τότε υπουργό Οικονομίας και Οικονομικών κ. Γ. Παπαθανασίου.
Το απόρρητο έγγραφο:
09ATHENS216
| ID : | 192834 |
|---|---|
| RefID : | 09ATHENS216 |
| Date : | 19/2/2009 1:44:00 μμ |
| Origin : | Embassy Athens |
| Classification : | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY |
- Header :
- VZCZCXRO6799 RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHTH #0216/01 0501344 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 191344Z FEB 09 FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3241 INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE RUEHIK/AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI 2032 RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ATHENS 000216
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DESK PASS TO TREASURY/IA - LUKAS KOHLER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, GR
SUBJECT: NEW GREEK FINANCE MINISTER ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON GREEK ECONOMY
REF: ATHENS 176
ATHENS 00000216 001.2 OF 003
-------
Summary
-------
1. (SBU) In a February 13 courtesy call, the Ambassador
discussed the global financial crisis and its impact on the
Greek economy with Ioannis Papathanasiou, Greece´s new
Minister of Economy and Finance. The new Minister summarized
his recent EcoFin meetings in Brussels, the revisions to the
Greek Stability and Growth Program (SGP) -- the government´s
economic program under the European Monetary Union (EMU) --
and his thoughts on the major problems facing the Greek
economy. The Minister´s tone and rhetoric echoed his public
statements that the global financial crisis would not impact
the Greek economy too severely, begging the question of how
realistic the GoG´s analysis and projections are. While the
new Minister appeared to have a fair grasp of the issues
facing the country, he seemed to portray Greece as a victim
of the global crisis and what he regards as unfair rumors
that have driven up borrowing rates to which Greece is
subject in international markets, taking little government
(current and previous) ownership for the events and actions
-- or lack of actions -- that have brought Greece to its
current difficulties. End Summary.
-------------------------
The Minister´s Background
-------------------------
(2) (SBU) The Ambassador expressed his congratulations and
desire to continue a cooperative relationship with the
Ministry, and indicated that stabilizing the global economy
is one of President Obama´s top priorities. He and the
Minister agreed that the economic crisis is a global problem
requiring a global solution. The Minister, who is an
electrical engineer by training and most recently held the
position of Deputy Minister in the Ministry, stated that as a
former President of the Athens Chamber of Commerce, his
background is on the business and micro side of economics.
--------------------------------------------- ----
EcoFin Meetings and Problems Facing Greek Economy
--------------------------------------------- ----
(3) (SBU) The Minister indicated that the EcoFin meetings in
Brussels during the week of February 9 went well, but it is
not yet clear whether the EU will place Greece and other
countries under EC monitoring for failure to hold their
fiscal deficits under the Stability and Growth Pact target of
3 percent of GDP. The Minister insisted that there is no
danger of Greece leaving or being ejected from the EMU as a
result of its fiscal deficit and high level of public debt.
He said that this view was echoed by all EC officials at the
EcoFin meetings. Papathanasiou went on to say that despite
the public´s focus on Greece´s fiscal deficit (which the GoG
projects to hold in 2009 at the 2008 level of 3.7 percent of
GDP), the main problem facing the Greek economy today is an
increase in borrowing costs which have compounded an already
high level of public debt (the second highest in the EU,
coming in at 94.6 percent of GDP in 2008 and projected by the
GoG to reach 96.3 percent of GDP in 2009). He stated that
until recently, the level of debt was not such an important
issue. Since the financial crisis hit, however, the spreads
Greece is charged to borrow in the international capital
markets have spiked. Papathanasiou believes these spreads
are unjustified solely on the basis of Greece´s level of
debt. In his opinion, the press has purposefully exacerbated
divergence in the spreads by focusing on a series of negative
events, including the December riots and the recent protests
by farmers, and thereby creating an impression that Greece is
in crisis and unable to service its current debt or to issue
new debt.
(4) (SBU) Quite to the contrary, the Minister told the
Ambassador, Greece faces no problems with borrowing on
international markets. Year-to-date, the GoG already has
raised over 40 percent of its 2009 financing needs in the
debt markets. (Note: According to the GoG´s 2009 budget,
Greece must borrow approximately 42 billion euros in 2009 to
finance its budget. Thus far, the GoG has raised the
following: (1) 2.55 billion euros from a January 13 auction
of short and medium-term bank notes; (2) 5 billion euros from
a January 19 issuance of a syndicated 5-year bond; (3) 2.8
billion from a late-January private bond placement; and (4) 7
billion euros from a February 10 issuance of 3-year bonds.
ATHENS 00000216 002.2 OF 003
It would appear that the GoG is front-loading its borrowing
program, with the expectation that its spreads will continue
to deteriorate over the course of the year. End Note.)
While the Minister acquiesced that yield spreads on Greek
bonds versus German government notes of similar maturity are
higher (for example, the February 10 3-year bonds were sold
to yield 249.2 basis points more than comparable German
bonds), he emphasized that the interest rate on these bonds
was 14 basis points lower than on similar bonds issued by
Greece in June 2008. (Note: While true, interest rates in
general have decreased as a result of cuts in rates by
central banks. The spread between bonds, therefore, is a
more important indication of the market´s assessment of risk
of one instrument verus another as opposed to interest rates
on bonds issued today versus those issued several months ago.
End Note.)
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
GoG´s Revised Projections and New Budget Measures in the SGP
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
(5) (SBU) The Minister highlighted for the Ambassador the
GoG´s revised projections for GDP growth and the fiscal
deficit. (Note: The previous Minister was widely criticized
in the Greek and international press and by economic analysts
for making projections in the 2009 budget, passed by
Parliament in December, that seemed to be detached from the
reality of the financial crisis and its impact on the Greek
economy. End Note.) The new GoG projection for GDP growth
in 2009 is 1.1 percent (down from 2.7 percent in the December
budget). Papathanasiou believes this is a far more credible
target than the European Commission´s (EC) projection of 0.2
percent. While he did not specify how he thought this target
could be achieved, he indicated his belief that the EC´s
target lacked a strong analytical basis. (Note: Recently,
the Bank of Greece, Greece´s central bank, has indicated it
finds the GoG´s 1.1 percent projection unrealistic, and
believes a 0.5 percent growth rate for 2009 is more
attainable in light of the global slowdown. End Note.)
(6). (SBU) The revised projection for the fiscal deficit in
2009 is 3.7 percent of GDP (up from 2.0 percent in the
December budget and the same as that of 2008). According to
the Minister, containing the fiscal deficit is the Prime
Minister´s and his Ministry´s top priority. He believes the
3.7 percent target will be achieved by implementing measures
included in the updated SGP to improve revenue collection and
to cut expenditures. SGP revenue collection measures
highlighted by Papathanasiou include an increase in the
special tax on alcoholic beverages and cigarettes and
simplification of the real property tax. SGP spending cuts
highlighted by Papathanasiou include a 10 percent cut to all
discretionary items in the budget, a 10 percent cut on all
government contracts, a limitation on new civil servant
hiring (fewer may be hired than retire), and salary ceilings
on managers in public enterprises and organizations.
Altogether, according to the Minister, these cuts give the
GoG a 500 million euros "cushion" in the budget in the event
revenues are below target, or additional social programs for
the vulnerable are needed. Papathanasiou also indicated that
the GoG´s goal under the SGP is to bring the deficit under 3
percent of GDP by 2011.
-------
Comment
-------
7. (SBU) The Minister´s tone and rhetoric in public, echoed
somewhat in the meeting with the Ambassador, seem to lack a
note of sobriety regarding the impact of the economic crisis
on Greece. With daily announcements by governments and
analysts worldwide projecting dismal outlooks for 2009, it
seems unrealistic -- quixotic even -- to hint that Greece may
not be impacted by the crisis as severely as others. Rather
than hoping for the best and preparing for the worst, the GoG
seems to be hoping for the best, preparing for the best --
and ignoring the rest. The Minister makes a plausible case
that the GoG has developed more realistic targets than those
outlined in the December budget, is dedicated to containing
the fiscal deficit, and that the GoG´s plan under the SGP can
help achieve this goal. The Minister does not, however, seem
to take into account risks to this strategy and to the GoG´s
projections. The entire GoG plan seems to hinge on tax
earnings and cuts to government spending and, as such, is
subject to a high level of risk as the global economy grinds
to a "virtual halt," as the IMF has predicted. There is
significant risk that government revenues will underperform
ATHENS 00000216 003.2 OF 003
in 2009 as they did in 2008, but the GoG´s SGP projects
stronger tax earnings and a billion euros in earnings from
privatizations of various entities, including those like
Olympic Airways and the Thessaloniki port that have failed
thus far to garner significant international financing. On
the expenditure cutting side, the government seems to be
doing more adding than subtracting. Since the mid-January
cabinet reshuffle that brought Papathanasiou to his new
posting, the Embassy´s back of the envelope tally indicates
that the GoG has committed over 2 billion euros in new
programs, some of which have been politically motivated (see
reftel). It would appear most of these funds are being
offered without budgetary offsets, calling into question how
concrete the SGP is and whether the GoG can really live up to
its fiscal deficit target.
8. (SBU) Moreover, the fact that the Minister portrays
Greece as a victim of unfair rumors in the press that have
helped exacerbate Greece´s costs of borrowing gives one the
impression that this government is not taking ownership of
Greece´s economic difficulties. Certainly, the December
riots and other signs of civil unrest may have contributed to
a widening yield spread between Greek and German state bonds,
but the ultimate factors are an increasing fiscal deficit and
a huge national debt -- two issues to which this and previous
governments paid only lip service in the years preceding the
financial crisis. We fear that this reluctance to take
ownership, coupled with overly optimistic statements in the
press, could give the markets the impression that this
government is not serious about fiscal discipline and further
structural reforms. In the end, this impression will simply
exacerbate Greece´s problems. End Comment.
SPECKHARD
;2009-02-19 13:44
πηγή: "νέοι Φάκελοι", Καθημερινή
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DESK PASS TO TREASURY/IA - LUKAS KOHLER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, GR
SUBJECT: NEW GREEK FINANCE MINISTER ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON GREEK ECONOMY
REF: ATHENS 176
ATHENS 00000216 001.2 OF 003
-------
Summary
-------
1. (SBU) In a February 13 courtesy call, the Ambassador
discussed the global financial crisis and its impact on the
Greek economy with Ioannis Papathanasiou, Greece´s new
Minister of Economy and Finance. The new Minister summarized
his recent EcoFin meetings in Brussels, the revisions to the
Greek Stability and Growth Program (SGP) -- the government´s
economic program under the European Monetary Union (EMU) --
and his thoughts on the major problems facing the Greek
economy. The Minister´s tone and rhetoric echoed his public
statements that the global financial crisis would not impact
the Greek economy too severely, begging the question of how
realistic the GoG´s analysis and projections are. While the
new Minister appeared to have a fair grasp of the issues
facing the country, he seemed to portray Greece as a victim
of the global crisis and what he regards as unfair rumors
that have driven up borrowing rates to which Greece is
subject in international markets, taking little government
(current and previous) ownership for the events and actions
-- or lack of actions -- that have brought Greece to its
current difficulties. End Summary.
-------------------------
The Minister´s Background
-------------------------
(2) (SBU) The Ambassador expressed his congratulations and
desire to continue a cooperative relationship with the
Ministry, and indicated that stabilizing the global economy
is one of President Obama´s top priorities. He and the
Minister agreed that the economic crisis is a global problem
requiring a global solution. The Minister, who is an
electrical engineer by training and most recently held the
position of Deputy Minister in the Ministry, stated that as a
former President of the Athens Chamber of Commerce, his
background is on the business and micro side of economics.
--------------------------------------------- ----
EcoFin Meetings and Problems Facing Greek Economy
--------------------------------------------- ----
(3) (SBU) The Minister indicated that the EcoFin meetings in
Brussels during the week of February 9 went well, but it is
not yet clear whether the EU will place Greece and other
countries under EC monitoring for failure to hold their
fiscal deficits under the Stability and Growth Pact target of
3 percent of GDP. The Minister insisted that there is no
danger of Greece leaving or being ejected from the EMU as a
result of its fiscal deficit and high level of public debt.
He said that this view was echoed by all EC officials at the
EcoFin meetings. Papathanasiou went on to say that despite
the public´s focus on Greece´s fiscal deficit (which the GoG
projects to hold in 2009 at the 2008 level of 3.7 percent of
GDP), the main problem facing the Greek economy today is an
increase in borrowing costs which have compounded an already
high level of public debt (the second highest in the EU,
coming in at 94.6 percent of GDP in 2008 and projected by the
GoG to reach 96.3 percent of GDP in 2009). He stated that
until recently, the level of debt was not such an important
issue. Since the financial crisis hit, however, the spreads
Greece is charged to borrow in the international capital
markets have spiked. Papathanasiou believes these spreads
are unjustified solely on the basis of Greece´s level of
debt. In his opinion, the press has purposefully exacerbated
divergence in the spreads by focusing on a series of negative
events, including the December riots and the recent protests
by farmers, and thereby creating an impression that Greece is
in crisis and unable to service its current debt or to issue
new debt.
(4) (SBU) Quite to the contrary, the Minister told the
Ambassador, Greece faces no problems with borrowing on
international markets. Year-to-date, the GoG already has
raised over 40 percent of its 2009 financing needs in the
debt markets. (Note: According to the GoG´s 2009 budget,
Greece must borrow approximately 42 billion euros in 2009 to
finance its budget. Thus far, the GoG has raised the
following: (1) 2.55 billion euros from a January 13 auction
of short and medium-term bank notes; (2) 5 billion euros from
a January 19 issuance of a syndicated 5-year bond; (3) 2.8
billion from a late-January private bond placement; and (4) 7
billion euros from a February 10 issuance of 3-year bonds.
ATHENS 00000216 002.2 OF 003
It would appear that the GoG is front-loading its borrowing
program, with the expectation that its spreads will continue
to deteriorate over the course of the year. End Note.)
While the Minister acquiesced that yield spreads on Greek
bonds versus German government notes of similar maturity are
higher (for example, the February 10 3-year bonds were sold
to yield 249.2 basis points more than comparable German
bonds), he emphasized that the interest rate on these bonds
was 14 basis points lower than on similar bonds issued by
Greece in June 2008. (Note: While true, interest rates in
general have decreased as a result of cuts in rates by
central banks. The spread between bonds, therefore, is a
more important indication of the market´s assessment of risk
of one instrument verus another as opposed to interest rates
on bonds issued today versus those issued several months ago.
End Note.)
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
GoG´s Revised Projections and New Budget Measures in the SGP
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
(5) (SBU) The Minister highlighted for the Ambassador the
GoG´s revised projections for GDP growth and the fiscal
deficit. (Note: The previous Minister was widely criticized
in the Greek and international press and by economic analysts
for making projections in the 2009 budget, passed by
Parliament in December, that seemed to be detached from the
reality of the financial crisis and its impact on the Greek
economy. End Note.) The new GoG projection for GDP growth
in 2009 is 1.1 percent (down from 2.7 percent in the December
budget). Papathanasiou believes this is a far more credible
target than the European Commission´s (EC) projection of 0.2
percent. While he did not specify how he thought this target
could be achieved, he indicated his belief that the EC´s
target lacked a strong analytical basis. (Note: Recently,
the Bank of Greece, Greece´s central bank, has indicated it
finds the GoG´s 1.1 percent projection unrealistic, and
believes a 0.5 percent growth rate for 2009 is more
attainable in light of the global slowdown. End Note.)
(6). (SBU) The revised projection for the fiscal deficit in
2009 is 3.7 percent of GDP (up from 2.0 percent in the
December budget and the same as that of 2008). According to
the Minister, containing the fiscal deficit is the Prime
Minister´s and his Ministry´s top priority. He believes the
3.7 percent target will be achieved by implementing measures
included in the updated SGP to improve revenue collection and
to cut expenditures. SGP revenue collection measures
highlighted by Papathanasiou include an increase in the
special tax on alcoholic beverages and cigarettes and
simplification of the real property tax. SGP spending cuts
highlighted by Papathanasiou include a 10 percent cut to all
discretionary items in the budget, a 10 percent cut on all
government contracts, a limitation on new civil servant
hiring (fewer may be hired than retire), and salary ceilings
on managers in public enterprises and organizations.
Altogether, according to the Minister, these cuts give the
GoG a 500 million euros "cushion" in the budget in the event
revenues are below target, or additional social programs for
the vulnerable are needed. Papathanasiou also indicated that
the GoG´s goal under the SGP is to bring the deficit under 3
percent of GDP by 2011.
-------
Comment
-------
7. (SBU) The Minister´s tone and rhetoric in public, echoed
somewhat in the meeting with the Ambassador, seem to lack a
note of sobriety regarding the impact of the economic crisis
on Greece. With daily announcements by governments and
analysts worldwide projecting dismal outlooks for 2009, it
seems unrealistic -- quixotic even -- to hint that Greece may
not be impacted by the crisis as severely as others. Rather
than hoping for the best and preparing for the worst, the GoG
seems to be hoping for the best, preparing for the best --
and ignoring the rest. The Minister makes a plausible case
that the GoG has developed more realistic targets than those
outlined in the December budget, is dedicated to containing
the fiscal deficit, and that the GoG´s plan under the SGP can
help achieve this goal. The Minister does not, however, seem
to take into account risks to this strategy and to the GoG´s
projections. The entire GoG plan seems to hinge on tax
earnings and cuts to government spending and, as such, is
subject to a high level of risk as the global economy grinds
to a "virtual halt," as the IMF has predicted. There is
significant risk that government revenues will underperform
ATHENS 00000216 003.2 OF 003
in 2009 as they did in 2008, but the GoG´s SGP projects
stronger tax earnings and a billion euros in earnings from
privatizations of various entities, including those like
Olympic Airways and the Thessaloniki port that have failed
thus far to garner significant international financing. On
the expenditure cutting side, the government seems to be
doing more adding than subtracting. Since the mid-January
cabinet reshuffle that brought Papathanasiou to his new
posting, the Embassy´s back of the envelope tally indicates
that the GoG has committed over 2 billion euros in new
programs, some of which have been politically motivated (see
reftel). It would appear most of these funds are being
offered without budgetary offsets, calling into question how
concrete the SGP is and whether the GoG can really live up to
its fiscal deficit target.
8. (SBU) Moreover, the fact that the Minister portrays
Greece as a victim of unfair rumors in the press that have
helped exacerbate Greece´s costs of borrowing gives one the
impression that this government is not taking ownership of
Greece´s economic difficulties. Certainly, the December
riots and other signs of civil unrest may have contributed to
a widening yield spread between Greek and German state bonds,
but the ultimate factors are an increasing fiscal deficit and
a huge national debt -- two issues to which this and previous
governments paid only lip service in the years preceding the
financial crisis. We fear that this reluctance to take
ownership, coupled with overly optimistic statements in the
press, could give the markets the impression that this
government is not serious about fiscal discipline and further
structural reforms. In the end, this impression will simply
exacerbate Greece´s problems. End Comment.
SPECKHARD
;2009-02-19 13:44
πηγή: "νέοι Φάκελοι", Καθημερινή
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